Youth Baseball Parks Blog

Joe Posnanski wonders why there are more Hall of Famers who played in 1930 than played in 1980:

OK, that makes 33 everyday Hall of Famers from 1930 and only 16 from 1980. Half. Think about how amazing that is for a moment — we’re supposed to accept that there were twice as many Hall of Famers in 1930, even though there were significantly fewer teams, even though black players did not play, even though baseball players in 1980 had 50 years of evolution in order to get better. It’s ludicrous. And more pitchers from 1930 than 1980 too? Really?

Joe goes on to note that if you throw out veteran committee choices, there are still more players from 1930 than 1980. Let me add one explanation. The standard deviation of talent early in baseball was higher. In other words, it was easier to stand out from the crowd. As baseball improved over the decades, the difference between the best players and the average players went down. In other words, you looked a lot better in 1930 if you were one standard deviation above the mean than if you played today.

Here’s a hypothetical. Take an early year in which the mean batting average was .260 and a recent year when the mean batting average was .260. In that early year, the S.D. might be 20 points, so someone who hit .300 was two standard deviations above the mean. In the later year, the S.D. might be 10 points, putting someone with a .300 BA four standard deviations above the mean. Over the years, however, a .300 BA remains the standard for excellence; we treat a .300 BA the same way someone in the 1930s did, despite it being tougher to accomplish now. Someone who hits .280 in this scenario is just as good as the .300 hitter from an earlier time, but no one is going to put him in the Hall of Fame.

I’ll try to put together actual numbers later.

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Source:More From the Past